Early Sales Reckoner – May 2014


Its a good start of the day when the numbers from the two leading carmakers – Maruti Suzuki & Hyundai – are deep into the positive territory.

Turned out, nearly everyone else was in the positive zone as well.

(This post will see multiple updates in the next 48 hours. Keep checking frequently.)

Update 1: 3 30 pm, June 3rd, 2014 – Updated numbers from Tata Motors and also M&HCV and LCV numbers from Tata, Ashok Leyland, Eicher and Mahindra

Update 2: 4 15 pm, June 3rd, 2014 – Updated numbers from GM India

Update 3: 7 00 pm, June 4th, 2014 – Updated Nissan / Datsun numbers

Finally the rays of sunshine appear to be shining down on the Indian automotive market. Since morning, nearly every carmaker, barring Mahindra, has reported very positive numbers.

Maruti-Suzuki led the way with a 16.4% jump in sales over May 2013. Celerio dispatches have picked up as the new small car model more than made up for the slight decline in Mini segment (Alto800, WagonR) sales.

Arch-rival Hyundai managed a 12.8% jump in sales on a year-on-year basis. The company’s dispatches were improved by the Xcent and Grand i10.

Ford is still in a data honeymoon period as the EcoSport was not yet launched in May 2013. This puts May 2014 sales against a smaller base, resulting in a 51% jump in numbers over previous year.

Honda too managed a 17.8% jump in dispatches as the new City continues to get a healthy response.

The surprise package was Toyota which managed a 5.8% jump in dispatches in the year.

However nothing has changed for GM India or Tata Motors as both reported strong declines in dispatches. GM India reported a 42.8% decline in dispatches to 4865 units in May 2014, from 8500 units in May 2013. Tata Motors dispatches came in at 9230 units, 17.1% fall from 11134 units dispatched in May 2013.

Like Ford, Nissan / Datsun is also in a data honeymoon with the addition of the Terrano and Go. Both of these were not around last May. As a result, Nissan sales were up 141% over last May.

Overall, with numbers from six seven eight nine carmakers, sales dispatches are up 10.9% 9.1% 8.66% 8.2% from previous May. We expect overall numbers for the month to close at about 9% 8.4% 7.2% 7.5% higher than May 2013 dispatch volumes.


May 2014 - Early Sales Reckoner - Passenger Vehicles v4

Two Wheelers

Hero MotoCorp managed a near 8% jump in dispatch volumes in May 2014, over previous year. However, a chunk of Hero’s jump in volumes was neutralised by Bajaj’s continued decline in numbers. Last month, Bajaj dispatches were 18.7% down on a year-on-year basis.

Meanwhile, Mahindra two wheelers improved sales dispatches by 131% on a very small base.

Overall, with numbers from three manufacturers, two wheeler sales dispatch numbers are up 2.3% from previous May.

We are yet to get our hands on HMSI numbers so this analysis is anything but complete.

May 2014 - Early Sales Reckoner - Two Wheelers v1

Medium & Heavy Commercial vehicles

The segment continues to bleed even though the wound appears to be healing now. Surprisingly, it was Eicher leading the decline brigade in May 2014 with only 3064 units dispatched in the month, a 12.2% fall from 3488 units dispatched in may 2013.

Market leader Tata Motors suffered a 10% decline in dispatches to 9113 units in May 2014, from 10123 units in previous year.

Meanwhile, Ashok Leyland managed to lose only 1% from its sales numbers, dispatching 4884 units in the month, from 4932 units in May 2013.

May 2014 - Early Sales Reckoner - CVs v1


Light commercial vehicles had another bad month with Ashok Leyland witnessing the steepest fall. This is not good news for the Dost. Dispatches in May 2014 were 1748 units, 25% down from May 2013 dispatches of 2335 units.

Tata too saw a 11.8% decline in LCV dispatches from 18129 units in the previous year to 15991 units in May 2014.

Mahindra’s LCV dispatches were 12836 units in May 2014, compared to 14848 units dispatched in May 2013, a decline of 13.6%.






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