Early Sales Reckoner – March 2015


March 2015 Dispatches .001


  1. The level of market concentration in almost all segments just went EVEN higher.

    Clearly: what we have is a de facto oligopoly made up of MS, HY, H and Toyota, East Asians, all. They could not have cornered the market any better, even if they’d conspired!

    Tata Motors is looking doomed in the medium run, at least as a competitor that can make any money in mass market hatches and sedans in India, against ‘the oligopoly’, possibly not even in SUV-s and MUV-s, where Mahindra still, for now, has a strong, uniquely so, position.

    Speaking of doomed, in ROI terms, calculated any which way: Chevy? Fiat (retail sales, not engines etc)? Ford? Nissan? VW+Skoda?

    India as export base is the only possible reason for these firms to keep trying to survive in sales terms in india. And in the case of VW as also FCA: potentially profitable sales from Audi and Jeep, over the next several years. FCA’s moves (ahem) will be especially interesting going forward, locally and globally ;-).

    The East Asians have won, definitively, just as they have long done in ASEAN?

    • Agree with nearly everything you have written. I think the East Asians have won because they did better homework.


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